When you open a case in CS:GO or CS2, the item you receive is determined by fixed rarity odds set by Valve. These numbers became public in 2017 through Chinese regulations and have since been confirmed by countless community tests. The system has not changed in CS2.
Official Case Odds
The chances of receiving an item of each rarity when opening a case are:
- Mil-Spec (blue): 79.92% (~4 in 5 cases)
- Restricted (purple): 15.98% (~1 in 6)
- Classified (pink): 3.2% (~1 in 31)
- Covert (red): 0.64% (~1 in 156)
- Rare Special (gold – knife or gloves): 0.26% (~1 in 385–400)
On top of this, there is a 10% chance that any drop is a StatTrak version, which further splits the above odds.
Community Verified Data
Large-scale opening tests by players confirmed these numbers with only minor variation:
- Mil-Spec: ~79%
- Restricted: ~16%
- Classified: ~3.5%
- Covert: ~0.9%
- Rare Special: ~0.3%
This shows the official rates are accurate in practice.
StatTrak Impact
Since 10% of all drops are StatTrak, each rarity splits into two categories. For example:
- A regular Covert drop: ~0.58%
- A StatTrak Covert drop: ~0.06%
- A regular Knife/Glove: ~0.234%
- A StatTrak Knife/Glove: ~0.026% (~1 in 3,800 cases)
This makes StatTrak gold items among the rarest obtainable skins in the game.
Souvenir Packages
Souvenir odds are structured differently and are generally worse for high-tier drops:
- Consumer Grade: 80%
- Industrial Grade: 16%
- Mil-Spec: 3.2%
- Restricted: 0.64%
- Classified: 0.128%
- Covert: 0.0256% (~1 in 3,900)
This makes high-tier Souvenir skins extremely rare, especially when hunting for specific match stickers.
Sticker Capsules
Sticker Capsules follow the same rarity distribution as cases but without knives or gloves:
- High Grade: 80%
- Remarkable: 16%
- Exotic: 3.2%
- Extraordinary: 0.64%
Probability in Practice
The rarest items have such low chances that even opening hundreds of cases does not guarantee success. Probability math shows:
- 50 cases: ~12% chance of at least one gold item
- 100 cases: ~23%
- 267 cases: ~50%
- 500 cases: ~71%
- 1,000 cases: ~93%
Even after 500 cases there is nearly a one-third chance of receiving no gold drop at all.
Quick Reference Table
| Rarity (Cases) | Chance | Odds (Approx.) |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec | 79.92% | 1 in 1.25 |
| Restricted | 15.98% | 1 in 6 |
| Classified | 3.2% | 1 in 31 |
| Covert | 0.64% | 1 in 156 |
| Knife/Gloves | 0.26% | 1 in 385–400 |
